Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts

Thursday, February 26, 2026

My Eye Of Hope

so, so wanted it to be true, even though I of course knew it was impossible -- that twig did NOT really penetrate or grow through the tree trunk;  it's just a visual illusion.  But still, compared to the hypothetical scenario of a billion monkeys randomly typing away on a billion typewriters for billions of years accidentally typing out the entirety of Shakespeare's Hamlet, I'd say a twig going through a tree trunk is a cinch.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Intriguing Incident

MAYBE SOMEONE IS TRYING TO TELL ME SOMETHING -- IN KOREAN-WRITTEN-IN-JAPANESE

Lately I've been making an effort to memorize the Japanese syllabary (my Japanese-fluent parents never taught me... they reserved Japanese for themselves as a kind of secret code^ -- but I got them back by taking Esperanto lessons^^) and this morning I finished making a set of Hiragana character flashcards.  I had them stacked in order, with the character あ ('A') on top.  Just now I happened to randomly cut the deck, twice, and the characters に ('NI') and よ ('YO') came up in succession.  It so happens these three syllables form the Korean phrase aniyo (아니요), which is a polite 'no'.

There are 48 of these characters (just the basic ones;  there's a whole bunch of additional characters formed by modifying or combining the basic 48).  I know absolutely nothing about statistics, but since the probability of any particular character coming up is 1 in 48, I guess for two specific characters (since the first one was already known) the probability is 1 in (48 x 48), or 2304 to 1..?  I don't know how the order in which they turn up figures into it (after all,  あよに / 아요니 is gibberish in both languages), but even without that part the likelihood of あによ / 아니요 / NO turning up purely by chance is impressively small.

Interesting.  Is this the answer to an unasked question I've been mulling over in my unconscious?  Or will I soon be facing a Yes/No choice of some kind?^

EDIT:  I just came back from a short walk during lunch break.  A dragonfly and a hummingbird streaked past me, one from left to right, and the other, right to left -- a tad unusual(?) in late October...  I may be stretching it, but together their paths described an X -- for another 'NO'.